Bryan’s Predictions

All I can say is I hope Bryan is wrong! Here’s his prediction:
“… friends, you heard it here first. If you thought 2000 was divisive, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet…. I think when all is said and done we’re going to have a tie of 269-269. I know that a while back I mentioned that several analysts had noted the possibility of a tie scenario (everything from 2000 stays the same with the exception of WV and NH). This is actually quite a bit different than that….

As far as the major battleground states go, Bush will win Florida, but Kerry will take Michigan, Pennsylvania and that historic Republican bellweather, Ohio (much to Shannon’s delight).
Unlike 2000, Bush will lose New Hampshire but gain New Mexico.
This makes the most important state in this election (and I’ve thought this for quite some time) Wisconsin. I predict that Bush wins there narrowly and sends the election into the mother of all legal battles.
Maybe the Sox just have me obsessed with notions of history-making, but I really think this may happen….
At this time four years ago, I went 49 for 50 (well, almost… I actually thought Bush was going to shave off one electoral vote from Maine, one of only two states in 2000 that didn’t have a winner-take-all arrangement). The one state I missed was New Mexico, which was ultimately decided by less than 2,500 votes.”
Bryan and I are both curious about others’ predictions, if you want to share, please do!

2 thoughts on “Bryan’s Predictions”

  1. The NYTimes answers the question about who becomes president while legal wrangling is pursued:
    Op-Ed Contributor: President Edwards?
    October 29, 2004
    It’s Jan. 20, 2005, and a stunned America watches as John
    Edwards is sworn in as both vice president and acting
    president of the United States. Impossible? No, nor is a
    Bush-Edwards administration.
    There are just a few upsets needed in states where the
    presidential race is very close. Even if President Bush
    wins Wisconsin and Minnesota – two states he lost in 2000 –
    Senator John Kerry would force a 269-269 Electoral College
    tie if he carries Colorado, Missouri, Nevada and New
    Hampshire, and Al Gore’s states.
    But Colorado’s ballot initiative to divide its electoral
    votes by popular ballot, rather than have them be winner
    take all, could change all that. If it’s approved, and
    voting in that state splits as it did in 2000, Mr. Bush
    would pick up four votes, and win 273-265.
    If recounts, challenges to provisional ballots and other
    legal actions don’t overturn that result, the Supreme Court
    could again be called upon to decide the election. Imagine
    a ruling that applies the results of the Colorado
    initiative only to future presidential elections, not the
    2004 contest. That would reinstate the Electoral College
    269-269 deadlock, and send the tied contests to Congress;
    the House would choose the president and the Senate the
    vice president.
    In the Senate, at least 51 votes would be required to elect
    a vice president. Given current polls, the Democrats can
    gain control of the Senate by picking up seats in Alaska,
    Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky and Oklahoma, while losing
    seats in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Senator
    Edwards would be elected as vice president.
    The House, however, votes for president by state, with 26
    delegations required for election. If members of the House
    then voted as their states did, President Bush, in this
    scenario, would carry 28 states, thus leading to a
    Bush-Edwards administration.
    Both Minnesota and Wisconsin, however, have House
    delegations that are evenly divided and are expected to
    remain that way. Members in those two states could decide
    to vote in line with the results of their districts, not
    the statewide result, thus their states would not be able
    to cast a vote because they deadlocked. If the
    Congressional delegation in one other state that also voted
    for Mr. Bush happened to deadlock, or defied the state
    result and voted for Senator Kerry, President Bush would
    get only 25 states.
    The Constitution provides that the vice president becomes
    president if the president dies, resigns or is removed from
    office. But the 20th Amendment states that: “If a president
    shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the
    beginning of his term, or if the president-elect shall have
    failed to qualify, then the vice president-elect shall act
    as president until a president shall have qualified.”
    The House could remain deadlocked for two years, and
    perhaps even four, depending on the results of the 2006
    Congressional elections. And until the House reaches a
    decision, Acting President John Edwards would occupy the
    Oval Office.
    Stephen J. Marmon, who reported on the House of
    Representatives for The Times from 1971 to 1973, is an
    investment banker.

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